LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Let's take a closer look now at the impact of gerrymandering efforts with someone who's been a political consultant for both Republicans and Democrats. Mike Madrid has been studying Latino voters for 35 years, and he's the author of "The Latino Century." He teaches at the University of Southern California and the University of California, Irvine. Good morning, and welcome to the program.
MIKE MADRID: Good morning. Thank you so much for having me.
FADEL: So how does the GOP's redistricting playbook look to you now, given the latest polling?
MADRID: Well, it appears to have been a colossal mistake. Virtually every demographic that the Republican Party was relying on to serve as a new foundation for their racial realignment strategy - this new MAGA coalition has been abandoning them for the better part of at least 18 months, if not more. And there does not seem to be a single demographic where they have consolidated or increased support, rendering most of those map lines basically useless when, in fact, outcomes are exactly what you're trying to draw for. And it appears that in many of those 17 races that have been redrawn for Republican advantage, you're going to see a loss - a Republican loss or extremely competitive positioning - not what the Republicans drew these maps for at all.
FADEL: So you're saying that they made assumptions about ethnic groups and American voters that just didn't bear out?
MADRID: That's a great way to put it. That's exactly what has happened here. Their assumptions were that these Latino voters, specifically - these new minority voters, as they would refer to them - have not been voting along traditional minority lines. And that's, frankly, for both parties. But at this moment, when the pervasiveness of economic problems is so acute, you are seeing Latinos rejecting both parties. And, of course, as Republicans are the party in power, they will be suffering the most at the hands of these voters that are now the last major swing voter in the country. And I think in a few short days, we're going to see something rather historic showing that this dummymander that Republicans drew for themselves is going to backfire spectacularly.
FADEL: How are Latinos redefining political trends?
MADRID: Well, there was always an assumption that demographics is destiny, frankly, by both sides of the aisle. This was an issue, a term that gained popularity during the Obama years, where the belief was that all nonwhite voters were somehow born with Democratic Party DNA, that they would always be anti-Republican voters.
For the better part of a decade, what we've seen is this shift towards the Republican Party or, better said, away from the Democratic Party, culminating in the 2024 election, where Latinos split basically 50/50. But as I've been counseling, most of the data was suggesting that this is a dealignment, not a realignment. They're not shifting alliances or vote preferences towards the Republican Party. They're shifting their voting patterns away from the Democratic Party and now, in this environment, away from the Republican Party, rejecting both parties' failures to address an upwardly mobile economic pocketbook framework - policy set - that's providing any meaningful results. So as long as that continues, this dealignment is going to define American politics going forward.
FADEL: As in they won't be voting for either party, or they're a true swing vote?
MADRID: Well, a little bit of both, right? They're kind of one and the same. At least that's the way that manifests itself. But the party alliances is what I think is the most fascinating feature. You see both Black voters and white voters, non-college-educated working class of either race, tend to be extraordinarily loyal, very hyperpartisan. And the hyperpartisanship has defined American politics for at least 30, maybe 40, 50 years. Latino voters are rejecting that racial polarization.
They are also the most likely to be independent voters moving away from both parties. Even though they may be registered in one party, their propensity to vote against that party or foreignly (ph) is extremely high. We're seeing vote shifts of over 20% in some cases right now in the 2026 midterms that are coming up, according to exit polls. That's the same size of historic shift we saw just two years ago in the opposite direction. So this seemingly anominous (ph) - excuse me - anomalous tendency to vote for or against either party is actually the whole reason, the whole purpose, the whole framework from which elections were set up for in the first place. And so they're rejecting this idea of partisanship and polarization and what it means to be a minority voter in America.
FADEL: Political consultant Mike Madrid. thank you so much for your time.
MADRID: Thanks so much for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
