National Democrats have their sights on flipping Arizona’s state legislature, describing the state as one of their top priorities for the 2026 midterm elections.
But so far, campaign finance numbers tell a different story.
In competitive legislative districts in southern Arizona, well-financed Democratic candidates are scant. While the midterms are over nine months away and campaign spending doesn’t necessarily go through candidates themselves, campaign finance data currently shows Republicans with an edge over Democrats in key races.
In southern Arizona’s three tightest districts, incumbent legislators from both parties reported sizable fundraising hauls in 2025. But while at least one Republican running to flip a Democratic seat sits on a large war chest, the opposite is not true for Democrats challenging incumbent Republicans.
In the 17th legislative district, which includes Marana, Oro Valley and Tucson’s east side, incumbent Rep. Kevin Volk is the only Democrat who has raised any money, ending 2025 with about $38,000. Meanwhile, Republican John Winchester sits on almost $50,000 in a bid to unseat Volk and Republican Chris King has already raised about $39,000 to fill a seat vacated by retiring Sen. Vince Leach.
To the north, the 16th district covers much of Pinal County, including Casa Grande and Coolidge. Though it’s now represented by an all-GOP slate, Democrat Keith Seaman served the area for two years after a surprise win in the 2022 midterm elections. This year, Seaman’s former treasurer Elaine Aldrete is the only Democrat who has reported fundraising totals in the district, raising under $1,000.
Meanwhile, the 23rd legislative district, which stretches west from Tucson to Yuma, is a Democratic-leaning area where Republican Michele Peña has managed to hold a House seat since 2023. None of the Democrats bidding to unseat Peña have filed campaign finance reports.
The three districts are among the seven identified by state and national Democrats as Arizona targets in 2026, said Rep. Nancy Gutierrez in a January [press call](
The other four — the 2nd, 4th, 9th and 13th districts — are in the Phoenix area, where Democrats challenging Republican candidates have outpaced their southern Arizona counterparts. Democrat Aaron Lieberman currently has over $88,000 in the 4th district race, while Brandy Reese and Racquel Armstrong both sit on over $20,000 in the 13th district contest.
Over nine months remain until the midterm elections, and many successful Arizona state legislative candidates have launched campaigns well after January of an election year.
Spending in legislative races does not have to go through candidates themselves. Political parties can use their own funds to work with their candidates in a district, while fundraising organs like PACs can independently campaign on behalf of candidates.
In the last three months of 2025, the Arizona Democratic Party raised over $250,000. It sent over $55,000 to the Navajo County Democratic Committee — used by state Democrats as a fundraising organ — and $94,500 to Copper State Values PAC, a new fundraising entity that has not yet filed any disclosures, but is associated with Democratic governor Katie Hobbs’ reelection bid.
